On the Web, no 'Seinfeld' yet ... Paul Schrader on What Happens Next ... More 3-D Screens at Small Theater Chains

- The New York Times ran a story Sunday and another this morning about original Web video content. The message of both, when read together, is that there hasn't yet been a 'Seinfeld'-like hit on the Web yet, but lots of people are trying.

On Sunday, Brian Stelter wrote:

...[P]roducing Web content may be easy but profiting from it is hard. While a small number of writers, producers and actors are making a living with webisodes, they are still a long way from establishing the form alongside television and feature films. The newfound industry lacks clear business models and standardized formats.

And so far, it also lacks audiences. Ask most average media consumers what Web shows they watch, and the reaction is likely to be a blank stare. If they have heard of webisodes at all, it is probably in the context of “Quarterlife,” a Web series that leapt to TV and flopped spectacularly in the ratings in February, or “Prom Queen,” an online drama backed by Michael Eisner, the former chief of Walt Disney.

Then today, Mike Hale reviews several Web series, including 'Gemini Division' with Rosario Dawson, and Stephen King's N., which exists to promote a new book. About 'Gemini,' he writes:

...[P]erhaps because of the cost of hiring a known actress like Ms. Dawson, the execution is lacking. The actors are pasted on top of static photo images of hotel rooms and Paris landmarks, and very little animation has been done beyond the annoying use of graphics to indicate that we’re actually watching video transmissions from Ms. Dawson to a friend back home. It’s like watching “Sin City” or “300” without the digital effects, which — need I say? — were just about the only reasons to watch those movies.

So what do you think, will the hits come from the big guys, or the independents?

Someone from Gen247 Media e-mailed me last week to point me to 'Deleted: The Game', a "Web TV show that promises to blur the lines between fantasy and reality by drawing viewers into an interactive game." Their budget is "next to nothing," I'm told, and they shoot act-by-act, which allows them to incorporate audience input. Characters are available for viewer interaction on sites like MySpace, Facebook, or via chat. Viewers can win prizes, or a chance to do a cameo on the show.

- Karina Longworth has the world's best job. She was out at Telluride this past week, and offered up some notes from a panel called "Snip Snip: Are Cutbacks in Film Distribution and Criticism Affecting Quality Filmmaking?" Here was the section I found interesting:

“Technology is leaving behind much that we are fond of,” [screenwriter & dirctor Paul] Schrader warned. “I personally believe that movies are a 20th century art form, and they’re basically over.” Several times over the course of the session, Schrader expressed enthusiasm for short-form episodic work made on low budgets for small screens. Referencing the rise number of “professional” media makers who have jumped to the webseries format, Schrader announced that he’s currently planning a film that would exist in a couple of different versions: one feature designed for arthouses, and one “X-rated” version, cut into 12, 5-minute episodes, for viewing on cellphones and/or on the web. Schrader’s not planning to go this route because it’s lucrative, but because it’s what he sees as our inevitable future. “There’s [currently] no money in it, but it’s much better to gore the ox than to hold the ox that’s being gored.”

- RealD and the Cinema Buying Group, which represents smaller theater chains looking to transition to digital cinema, announced that they're going to bring 3-D to about 1,000 screens. Sarah McBride explains:

The independent-theater owners "want to remain competitive, and they want to accrue the benefits" that come with 3D, said Michael Lewis, chairman and chief executive of RealD.

...Theaters tend to charge a premium for 3D tickets, often $2 to $5 more than regular tickets. That means movies that run on 3D screens can boost theaters' and studios' bottom lines. During opening weekend for this summer's "Journey to the Center of the Earth," 3D screens took in almost four times the revenue of 2D screens showing the movie.

Eisner's Next Online Series: 'The All-for-Nots'

The NY Times explores Michael Eisner's online video ventures, in advance of Eisner's appearance next week at SXSW to promote his new online series, 'The All-for-Nots.' (Eisner will be interviewed by Mark Cuban -- sure to be news-making.)

So now the question is: who'll crack the creative challenges of Web video (and figure out the right economic model) first.... Eisner, or his former employer, Disney?

Sony to Do Video Downloads? ... Mike Shoots with the Red ... Studio Chief Job Security ... One Less Drive-In

If you, like me, are trying to fend off the start of fall with some good old-fashioned procrastination, here's some Tuesday reading for you...

- Sony may soon challenge Apple in selling video downloads, according to the Wall Street Journal. (Oddly, the Journal story goes on for a while before mentioning that just last week Sony exited the business of selling digital music through its Connect online store.) From the story:

People familiar with the situation say [Sony chairman Howard] Stringer is planning to use Sony's technology-packed PlayStation 3 and PlayStation Portable videogame machines, along with its Bravia high-definition televisions, to develop products and services to let users download television shows and movies, similar to the way they download music and videos using Apple's iTunes store and iPods. A Sony spokesman declined to comment on the company's strategy.

As Internet connections have become faster, analysts have expected the next big potential market to be in downloading movies and television shows. Some analysts believe it could be significantly larger than the digital music market.

The writer says that Sony's main advantage in getting into digital video could be that "Content companies like movie studios may be wary of the way Apple dominated the digital music market, and may be more encouraged to work with another company, especially one that owns a movie studio of its own and understands their concerns."

The story also contains a projection from Parks Associates that total video download revenues for 2007 will hit $2 billion. That's real money.

- Mike Curtis is in New York playing with some of Red Digital Cinema's first production cameras.

- From Sunday's NY Times: 'For Studio Chiefs, the End of the Revolving Door?' Michael Cieply observes that the job security of studio chairmen may actually be increasing. Here's the gist:

Over the last decade or so, managers of big companies like Sony, the owner of Columbia Pictures, and the News Corporation, owner of 20th Century Fox, came to realize that the film business is less about scoring the odd hit than keeping the pipeline full of something other than losers. That happened as the DVD explosion and growing sales abroad showed that even a modest success at the box office could bring home a substantial profit.

Stability trumped brilliance. The cool of a John Calley, the longtime producer who took charge of Sony Pictures Entertainment in the period, replaced the heat of a Peter Guber, whose stormy reign preceded him. High-tension types like Michael D. Eisner and Michael S. Ovitz left the stage.

For studio chairmen, an increasingly colorless lot, the shift in values brought with it a level of job security that was only occasionally achieved a generation ago.

- Also from the Sunday Times... this may make you sad: an obituary for a Buffalo drive-in.

Original Content for the Web: The Big Questions

I had a conversation earlier this week with a very well-known TV writer who is working to develop a new video series for the Web. And I've gotten e-mails from a number of producers (and publicists) this month plugging new episodic projects.

I think we're seeing the emergence of professional content online that will challenge user-generated content -- something I started talking about late last year. This doesn't mean user-gen video is going to disappear, or that we won't see user-generated viral clips continue to circulate -- just that the professionals are now serious about trying to reach viewers, build long-term relationships, and make money on the Web.

Earlier this month, Brett Weinstein of UTA announced 60Frames Entertainment. You've also got Michael Eisner's Vuguru and Next New Networks, founded by Herb Scannell of MTV. Plus:

- Ryan Bilsborrow-Koo and Zachary Lieberman just launched an "urban western" called "The West Side."

- Nerve Video has a sexy new series called "Tight Shots."

- AmericaFree.TV is doing a series called "Custody."

- Nickelodeon debuts its first original Web series, "Nick Cannon's Star Camp," on July 22nd at www.turbonick.com. There are five 15-minute episodes, culminating in a televised finale on August 26th.

Some of the big questions that haven't yet been answered:

- How much advertising will viewers tolerate? How "interruptive" will it be (IE, will it be small logos in the corner of the frame, or 15-second commercials that run before, during, and after the video)?

- How much can you spend on production and still expect to earn a profit? Will a new aesthetic emerge?

- We know that good writing will be important. But how important will recognizable stars be?

- How will creators make their stuff "appointment viewing"? It's one thing to get a viewer to subscribe to a stream of videos by e-mail, or some form of RSS, but actually keeping them engaged and getting them to watch is a tougher challenge.

If you compared the development of professional Web video to television, we'd still be pre-Uncle Miltie.

Some history:

In 1948, NBC moved Milton Berle's "Texaco Star Theater" from radio to television. By 1949, Berle had become television's first big-name star, and was credited with causing the sale of television sets to double that year.

While there have been lots of original shows created for the Web, we don't yet know who the Texacos will be (the sponsors for this new kind of content) or the Uncle Milties. I don't think we've hit an inflection point yet for professional video content online.

But it could be close.

60Frames Entertainment: Model for a New Kind of Studio? Plus, Disney movies on Xbox

- Ad Age reports that Brent Weinstein, head of United Talent Agency's digital division, is starting a new venture in partnership with Spot Runner, an online advertising firm. It'll be called 60Frames Entertainment, and has an initial bankroll of $3.5 million, according to the WSJ.

The idea is to fund professionally-produced short-form comedic content for the Web. Spot Runner will sell ads around the content. This is similar to what Barry Diller has been up to, Michael Eisner's Vuguru, or the Atom Films Studio.

All these experiments, it seems to me, are essential to figuring out how a next-gen TV "network" or movie "studio" will work: how it will identify and fund cool content, support creatives, structure the costs of production, market the finished product, and spin it off from the Web into other media. One important milestone that probably isn't more than a year away: a Web series that attracts a big enough audience to get a movie greenlit. We've already seen an animated cell phone series spawn a TV show, after all.

Here's the official press release.

- About 35 Disney movies, including 'Aladdin' and 'Armageddon,' are now available on the MSFT Xbox. WSJ story...LA Times. The Times notes that there had previously been 192 movies from Warner Bros., Paramount, Lions Gate, and New Line, and 179 TV shows available on Xbox. From the story:

Xbox Live's users can rent high-definition versions of new release movies for $6, or $4 for standard definition. Older movies are $4.50 for high definition, $3 for standard.

Once downloaded, consumers have 14 days to begin watching the films before they are erased from the console's hard disk drive.

ShoWest opens in Vegas ... Eisner dips into Web content production ... What's happening at ClickStar?

- Gregg Kilday of the Hollywood Reporter is blogging from ShoWest in Las Vegas, the annual conclave that brings together theater owners, studio execs, and lots of vendors. The Reporter also has a few ShoWest stories: Dolby's new 3-D system will compete with the system made by Real D. (Here's Dolby's press release.) A satellite services company called Microspace will be beaming the feature 'Disturbia' to ShoWest for a Tuesday screening. And finally, NATO head John Fithian admits he was wrong about the revenue potential of digital 3-D:

"I'm willing to accept the fact that I was wrong because I did not believe that 3-D would be as big of a catalyst as it is now," John Fithian, president of the National Association of Theatre Owners, said in The Hollywood Reporter's ShoWest roundtable. "3-D is becoming a much bigger value add than I originally thought. 'Chicken Little' and 'Nightmare Before Christmas' blew the socks off all our members. When you can take a product that's been around for a while and bring it out and make $9 million, that's impressive."

- Michael Eisner is launching a digital content development studio called Vuguru, according to The Wall Street Journal. (The LA Times also has coverage. From the Journal's piece:

"Vuguru's goal is to be the leader in producing high-quality, story-driven content for the Internet that up until now could only be found in movie theaters or on television," Tornante said. [Tornante is Eisner's private investment company.]

"In the past few years, the development of exciting and innovative digital media platforms and technologies has outpaced the creation of truly great content," Mr. Eisner said. "Vuguru will produce and showcase original and third party content in all genres and formats to meet the new demands of the evolving media landscape."

Here's a look at their first project, Prom Queen, which will consist of 80 episodes, each 90 seconds long. It'll show up on Veoh ( a video site Eisner has invested in ), as well as YouTube and other sites. Pretty cool experiment, but one question: how will Vuguru place advertising on the clips it posts to YouTube?

- ClickStar, the site that is a joint venture of Intel and Morgan Freeman's production company, Revelations Entertainment, has split with its interim CEO, James Ackerman, according to Variety. Lori McCreary, Freeman's co-producer at Revelations, will take over as CEO. (ClickStar's original CEO, Nizar Alibhoy, left last January.) Ben Fritz of Variety writes about the next Internet feature ClickStar will release:

Company hopes to get a second boost from "Lonely Hearts," an indie pic that will be available for download at ClickStar on April 27, two weeks after it hits theaters. True-crime story, which Roadside Attractions and Samuel Goldwyn Films are releasing, is written and directed by Todd Robinson and stars John Travolta and Salma Hayek.