Two from the LA Times

Two pieces on the digital media future that ran in the LA Times this week:

'Hollywood hits the stop button on high-profile Web video efforts' and 'Digital technology and dollar signs' (an op-ed piece I wrote.)

From the first piece, by Ben Fritz and Dawn Chmielewski:

Conceived with great fanfare, big media's attempt over the last two years to capitalize on the Internet video phenomenon embodied by YouTube and "Saturday Night Live" digital shorts has fallen victim to recession-triggered cuts and inflated expectations about the advertising revenue they would command.

"It's very similar to what happened in '99 and 2000, where everyone saw gold in the hills," said Mika Salmi, the former head of digital media for MTV Networks and now a technology venture capitalist, in reference to the first dot-com boom. "The reality is that it's much harder to make money than everyone thought."

It mentions the recent shut-down of 60Frames Entertainment, Disney's Stage 9 Digital studio, and earlier failures like NBC's DotComedy Web site and SuperDeluxe.

Meanwhile, in my piece, I argue that perhaps Hollywood hasn't been experimental enough with the Web, or taken users' behavioral changes seriously enough. (The top talent in Hollywood still wants to make feature-length, big budget content for cinemas, I'd argue...not short clips for mobile phones.)

From that piece:

Many in Hollywood still deride the wacky, user-generated videos that occasionally turn into viral hits on YouTube, the top website for video viewing. And it's true that one of the most-watched videos ever uploaded to the site is titled "Charlie bit my finger -- again!"

But a number of young creators -- many of them working outside of Hollywood's orbit -- have been feverishly experimenting with new ways to tell stories and generate revenue. An office worker in Connecticut created the catty entertainment commentary show "What the Buck" on YouTube, and suddenly found he was making more from the site's "partner program," which offers creators a cut of ad revenue, than he was at his desk job, which he promptly quit. Lance Weiler accents his suspense films with cellphone and Web-based "alternate reality games" that enable players to explore the story and interact with characters after they've left the theater. Robert Greenwald, a Culver City-based documentarian, has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars online to support his left-leaning films and Internet videos on such topics as the mortgage crisis and the war in Afghanistan. And Gregg and Evan Spiridellis are building a new kind of animation studio in Venice, where they produce a series of viral videos about current events and politics, and sell subscriptions to a vast collection of customizable digital greeting cards. This month, they'll debut their latest video for President Obama at the Radio and TV Correspondents Assn. Dinner in Washington.

Business models for content on the Internet are still evolving. But it's already becoming clear that $100-million movies like "Land of the Lost," or even $10-million independent films, may not represent the future of the industry. And new technologies like YouTube, the iPhone and next-generation gaming consoles are opening up all sorts of new, creative possibilities. The artists and business people who will succeed in this new environment are those who are paying attention to the changing behaviors and tastes of this new digital audience -- rather than trying to ignore them or, worse, explaining why they are wrong.

Your thoughts?

Will Writers Guild Strike Help Online Content Sites?

The Wall Street Journal says that sites like Funnyordie.com, MyDamnChannel.com, Break.com, and 60Frames.com may be able to work with Writers Guild members during the strike. Journo Sarah McBride wonders if this strike could help digital media in the same way the 1980s strike helped cable TV.

From the piece:

The companies may have trouble recruiting Writers Guild of America members, largely because of confusion over what writers may and may not do while on strike. Some writers believe strike rules preclude them from writing for anybody, even if it isn't studio content. But a spokesman for the guild said the rules don't prohibit members from writing for new media for companies that haven't signed agreements with the guild. "We encourage members, however, to consider trying to cover their new-media services by having the employer sign a made-for-new-media agreement," the spokesman said, "and we will continue signing such agreements even during [a strike]."

Online video companies are hungry for more professional material than what typically arrives in over-the-transom videos. Looking ahead a few years, the future of online video could lie more in series of clips, much like episodes of television shows, rather than one-off clips. "Advertisers like buying episodic things because it's predictable," says [CEO Keith] Richman of Break, which is aimed at men ages 18 to 35.

...A number of sites stress their association with Hollywood bigwigs. Funnyordie.com, created by actor Will Ferrell and writer-director Adam McKay, is already benefiting from the labor action, with several new skits spoofing the strike. Through their publicist, Messrs. Ferrell and McKay declined to comment on how the strike affects traffic or material on their site.

Original Content for the Web: The Big Questions

I had a conversation earlier this week with a very well-known TV writer who is working to develop a new video series for the Web. And I've gotten e-mails from a number of producers (and publicists) this month plugging new episodic projects.

I think we're seeing the emergence of professional content online that will challenge user-generated content -- something I started talking about late last year. This doesn't mean user-gen video is going to disappear, or that we won't see user-generated viral clips continue to circulate -- just that the professionals are now serious about trying to reach viewers, build long-term relationships, and make money on the Web.

Earlier this month, Brett Weinstein of UTA announced 60Frames Entertainment. You've also got Michael Eisner's Vuguru and Next New Networks, founded by Herb Scannell of MTV. Plus:

- Ryan Bilsborrow-Koo and Zachary Lieberman just launched an "urban western" called "The West Side."

- Nerve Video has a sexy new series called "Tight Shots."

- AmericaFree.TV is doing a series called "Custody."

- Nickelodeon debuts its first original Web series, "Nick Cannon's Star Camp," on July 22nd at www.turbonick.com. There are five 15-minute episodes, culminating in a televised finale on August 26th.

Some of the big questions that haven't yet been answered:

- How much advertising will viewers tolerate? How "interruptive" will it be (IE, will it be small logos in the corner of the frame, or 15-second commercials that run before, during, and after the video)?

- How much can you spend on production and still expect to earn a profit? Will a new aesthetic emerge?

- We know that good writing will be important. But how important will recognizable stars be?

- How will creators make their stuff "appointment viewing"? It's one thing to get a viewer to subscribe to a stream of videos by e-mail, or some form of RSS, but actually keeping them engaged and getting them to watch is a tougher challenge.

If you compared the development of professional Web video to television, we'd still be pre-Uncle Miltie.

Some history:

In 1948, NBC moved Milton Berle's "Texaco Star Theater" from radio to television. By 1949, Berle had become television's first big-name star, and was credited with causing the sale of television sets to double that year.

While there have been lots of original shows created for the Web, we don't yet know who the Texacos will be (the sponsors for this new kind of content) or the Uncle Milties. I don't think we've hit an inflection point yet for professional video content online.

But it could be close.

60Frames Entertainment: Model for a New Kind of Studio? Plus, Disney movies on Xbox

- Ad Age reports that Brent Weinstein, head of United Talent Agency's digital division, is starting a new venture in partnership with Spot Runner, an online advertising firm. It'll be called 60Frames Entertainment, and has an initial bankroll of $3.5 million, according to the WSJ.

The idea is to fund professionally-produced short-form comedic content for the Web. Spot Runner will sell ads around the content. This is similar to what Barry Diller has been up to, Michael Eisner's Vuguru, or the Atom Films Studio.

All these experiments, it seems to me, are essential to figuring out how a next-gen TV "network" or movie "studio" will work: how it will identify and fund cool content, support creatives, structure the costs of production, market the finished product, and spin it off from the Web into other media. One important milestone that probably isn't more than a year away: a Web series that attracts a big enough audience to get a movie greenlit. We've already seen an animated cell phone series spawn a TV show, after all.

Here's the official press release.

- About 35 Disney movies, including 'Aladdin' and 'Armageddon,' are now available on the MSFT Xbox. WSJ story...LA Times. The Times notes that there had previously been 192 movies from Warner Bros., Paramount, Lions Gate, and New Line, and 179 TV shows available on Xbox. From the story:

Xbox Live's users can rent high-definition versions of new release movies for $6, or $4 for standard definition. Older movies are $4.50 for high definition, $3 for standard.

Once downloaded, consumers have 14 days to begin watching the films before they are erased from the console's hard disk drive.