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Wednesday, September 19, 2007

Digital Downloads Panel at IFP Filmmaker Conference

This afternoon's panel on Digital Downloads was hugely fun for me to moderate.

Joel Heller of Docs That Inspire recorded the panel, and has posted it here.

Some of my impressions and rough notes:

    - Digital downloading isn't yet a major revenue-generator for indie filmmakers; Hunter Weeks of '10 MPH' said he has sold about 4000 DVDs of the documentary, and about 700 downloads (both on his own site and on Amazon Unbox)

    - Anyone who picks up your movie for distribution in theaters, on home video, or on TV will try to buy the digital rights for it ... even if they don't actually do anything with them; carving out digital rights seems like a good idea

    - We all agreed that iTunes is the "hot shop" where digital movie buying happens, but they're not yet open to indies; Peter Broderick of Paradigm Consulting said that iTunes will start selling indie content (handled by aggregators) really soon, but wouldn't say more

    - Building a database of your fans' names, e-mail addresses, and ZIP codes is really important, as you sell downloads. Many services won't give you that information, to protect their customers' privacy. But Peter said that getting that information could be as valuable as any profit you earn from selling or renting your movie -- since those are fans you can communicate with and market your future films to. Peter has a great term for that group of people: they are a filmmakers "core personal audience." I like that.

    - I predicted, in response to an audience question, that in five years, digital movie consumption will be about equal to consumption on DVD.

    - Jaman said they plan to start integrating advertising in short films soon, and sharing the revenue with creators (right now, Jaman's model is simply to sell or rent full-length movies in digital form)

    - I brought up Jaman's deal structure: they give filmmakers 30 percent of the rental or download revenues, and pocket 70 percent. That compares to selling movies through Amazon's Unbox / CreateSpace, which split revenues down the middle. Kathleen Powell said that Jaman is more of a concentrated community of cinephiles, and that indie features and docs don't get lost. (She also said that "Black" is the site's most popular film.)

    - Then Brian Chris of the 'Four Eyed Monsters' team hammered on Jaman some more, noting that the site requires filmmakers sign a six year non-exclusive agreement ... so if you made another distribution deal, you couldn't remove your movie from Jaman for six years. Kathleen clarified, and said that the length of these deals run anywhere from five to nine years, and said that it's expensive for the site to encode movies (that cost is anywhere from $800 to $2000). So it isn't economical for the site to do that one week, and have a filmmaker pull down the title the next week.

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8 Comments:

  • Scott,

    I think you're going pretty far out on a limb to be predicting digital movie consumption to be equal with DVD sales within 5 years. There has to be an all-encompassing device that will enable the downloads to be played at high quality and with NO user fuss before we'll reach that. As of today, there isn't such a thing - YET. The PS3 or X-box is the closest kind of device if only Internet access speeds were sufficient to support real-time streaming of HD-level video. Once this mystery box exists, people still have to change their viewing habits, and it'll be tough to ween people off their DVDs.

    Unlike music CDs, the physical DVD boxes are more collectible for a lot of people. The size requirements for a high-quality compressed movie are still immense in comparison to what MP3s did for music.

    I would argue we'll be well past the middle of the next decade before digital media begins to touch the percentage numbers of disc based media.

    I do love your optimism though. :)

    -Steve
    http://indieproducer.blogspot.com/

    By Blogger Steve, at 6:11 AM  

  • Hi Steve-

    This sounds like a bet. Let's check back in in September 2012, and see where things are. Shall we wager a dozen Voodoo Doughnuts?

    Scott

    By Blogger Scott Kirsner, at 2:26 PM  

  • Hey Scott,

    That sounds like a great idea. You're on. Shall we make it a "Voodoo Dozen"? (yes, they are called that... it's the random 12 they give you - with a bit of fun attitude)

    I believe there will be indicators as to whether your prediction is on course by late 2009 or mid-2010. You better not disappear before we can see the outcome! ;)

    -Steve

    By Blogger Steve, at 11:31 PM  

  • Steve -

    I've marked my calendar for September 2012. My permanent e-mail is kirsner at pobox.com. You better be findable in five years!

    SK

    By Blogger Scott Kirsner, at 11:06 AM  

  • I believe the next wave of video to be full feature downloadable burn to DVD.

    Here's why:

    Processor speed is increasing (faster than HIGH SPEED BROADBAND PENETRATION). What this means is that people can download a smaller file (say h.264) and, while it's downloading, use their processor power (dual core / quad core) to decompress the file out to an MPEG-2 and retain MOST of the high quality of the DVD (with all the menu's etc..).

    What his means, is that instead of pulling down a 4.5GB file (single layer DVD), users pull down, say a 1.2 GB file directly to a (fully-authored) DVD.. not bad..

    Here's a demo of this with a short.. I think it's pretty cool!

    http://www.vladicast.com/fileShow.aspx?levelID=235&folderID=236&fileID=652&assetID=387

    You can "play" the file (like on YouTube, etc..), but, by clicking the "Burn To DVD" link instead, you can have a high quality DVD that plays on any DVD player.

    By Blogger Bill Elberg, at 6:03 PM  

  • I want in on the action.

    By Blogger Raven, at 5:08 AM  

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