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Wednesday, November 08, 2006

From Web 2.0: Mary Meeker on the Growth of Web Video

Morgan Stanley analyst Mary Meeker gave a light-speed talk (41 slides in 15 minutes) at Web 2.0 this morning. Much of it focused on the growth of Web video viewership, and her prediction that just as text and audio on the Web have been "monetized," so will video. (Here's a link to her slides as a PDF.)

- Her first captivating stat: an estimate that 60 percent of Internet traffic may be peer-to-peer file-sharing of unmonetized video.

- She estimated that the number of Internet users are growing at about 10-15 %, and that Internet usage is increasing at 20-30 %, while the growth in monetization is running at about 30 %. (Yes, this was kinda vague -- but it was on a slide headed `Global Internet Thesis.')

- As video is increasingly tagged, findable, and easy to search, she said, advertising can better be associated with it.

- She suggested that some of the most successful advertising might not be intrusive, 30-second spots that play before the video you've requested. Instead, she showed some examples (mock-ups, I think) of what she called "non-invasive, branded ads," like a Nike logo atop a Tiger Woods video, or a Purina logo atop a cute-dog video.

- Some of the fastest-growing sites, she pointed out, have been based on user-generated content: YouTube (2,662 % year-over-year growth in unique visitors), Wikipedia (110 %), and Fox/MySpace (303 %).

- She posed two questions toward the end:

    1. What will be the mix of amateur, professional, and semi-professional video content that people want to consume? Will it be 1/3, 1/3, and 1/3? No clear answer yet.

    2. She wondered whether traditional media companies (Time Warner, Viacom, NBC Universal, Disney) will be among the list of the most popular Web destinations in three or four years...observing that many brick-and-mortar retailers are today on the list of the most popular e-commerce sites (Wal-Mart, Staples, Best Buy, etc.), when everyone would've predicted that they'd be blown out of the water back in the late 1990s.

(Of course, monetizing video on the Web is a topic that I've been sorta obsessed with lately.)